2015 Previews and predictions - AFC

2015 previews and predictions

We’ve had to wait seven months since that glorious night when Left Shark stole the show at SuperBowl 49. Combines, the draft, training camps, pre-season games, injuries and the never-ending saga of the deflated balls are all very well, but finally the real deal – the regular season – is almost back with us!

I’ve really enjoyed watching the Chiefs’ pre-season games. Although I have to keep telling myself that the scores are irrelevant, it’s been fun to see us string a few wins together and to try to spot which players have the chance to shine for us this year. The opener in Houston will show us if the training has truly worked. Both teams have a host of stars in defence, but we look to have the edge on the other side of the ball, especially as the Texans will be without Arian Foster. We should be able to limit Houston’s scoring, and I’m hopeful that our triple threat of Charles, Kelce and now Maclin as well should be able to post enough points to get us off to a winning start.

With preseason almost over at the time of writing, I’ve made my predictions for each division in turn. I’m going to check out the odds to see if I can turn any of this research into a profit – but I’d love to hear from any of you who think my guesses are wildly out!

Last week we posted the NFC, Here are my AFC predictions.

AFC East

The New England Patriots have won the AFC East in 12 of the last 14 years, including the last 6 in a row. So the first question in this division is always – can anyone beat them?

The Jets looked likely challengers. With a new head coach in place and with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie making the secondary look top class, Gang Green just needed to avoid unnecessary problems and to see some progress from QB Geno Smith. Almost inevitably, things started to crumble with Sheldon Richardson suspended for using marijuana and subsequently charged with resisting arrest over a traffic violation – and then worse still Geno Smith having his jaw broken in a fight with a colleague over $600!

The Dolphins were also talked up as contenders – with Ryan Tannehill tipped to make strides forward. Although the defence looks immediately improved by the hiring of Ndamukong Suh, the offensive line looks like the weak spot. Tannehill is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL over the last 3 seasons, and it’s not clear at all that his protection is any better this time around.

Of all the Patriots’ rivals, the Bills seem to have the clearest chance of challenging for the divisional title – but with one big question hanging over them. The defence was good to start with – Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Mario Williams make up a formidable line. And new coach Rex Ryan brought in Shady McCoy and Charles Clay to add to the existing offensive threat from Sammy Watkins. The issue is of course at QB – Tyrod Taylor has finally got the job, and could easily be good enough to be the final piece in the puzzle – but the fact that it has taken all summer to decide he’s better than EJ Manuel or our old boy Matt Cassel doesn’t inspire confidence.

The Patriots themselves looked to have weakened slightly with the loss of several members of their secondary pushing unlikely SuperBowl hero Malcolm Butler further up the depth chart. But the biggest loss was the suspension of talisman Tom Brady… until a judge ruled otherwise. You just know things are going to turn out OK for the Pats – they always do!

Patriots (11-5 – 4th seed)

Bills (10-6 – 6th seed)

Dolphins (8-8)

Jets (5-11)

AFC North

For the last few years, this division has looked pretty strong, with three good-but-not-great teams battling hard for the title while the Browns lag behind. I’ve seen nothing to suggest things won’t be the same again!

The Browns managed to totally mis-use headline grabbing Johnny Manziel last year, to the extent that he ended up in rehab in the off-season. He’s clearly not back on form yet, and the choice of Josh McCown as quarterback smacks of desperation – his bright spell under centre with Chicago a couple of years back looks more and more like a flash in the pan.

To see what the Bengals fans think of their own team at the moment, look no further than the quarterback Andy Dalton being roundly booed while taking part in a charity softball game! The fans are fed up reaching the playoffs only to then fall at the first hurdle – they shouldn’t have to worry this season as I don’t see them even reaching the post season. A few nice players either side of the ball (AJ Green and Carlos Dunlap spring to mind) don’t make up for a team with too many flaws.

Although he’s missing the first two games of the season, Le’Veon Bell will then slot straight back into a high powered Pittsburgh offence with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. This team will score plenty of points, but I think they will concede plenty on occasions as well – with Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu gone, the defence will have to make do with lesser lights such as Cortez Allen, and will hope that rookies can step up quickly. No such problem for the Ravens – Terrelle Suggs and rookie CJ Mosley were a great line-backer tandem last year and seem so far as though they will be a force again. The offence doesn’t have any cast-iron great wideouts – but with Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, and rookie Breshad Perriman as options, I’m guessing reliable QB Joe Flacco will get the best out of at least one of them.

Ravens (12-4 – 2nd seed)

Steelers (10-6 – 5th seed)

Bengals (8-8)

Browns (5-11)

AFC South

The Colts have been a good team – and a fun team to watch – for the last few years. The impression this year is that the management have decided to make the most of star QB Andrew Luck’s prime by heading into win-now mode. Bringing in Andre Johnson and Frank Gore into an already loaded attack is a clear sign of this – two great additions who will improve the team but who are already both well into their 30s. The attacking talent in the skill positions is possibly the best in the whole NFL and should see them cruise to another divisional title. But there look to be issues in the offensive line and all around the defence, so I think that the Colts shortcomings will become apparent once they hit the playoffs.

Second best side the Houston Texans are a mirror image. Their defence is star studded – Vince Wilfork, Brian Cushing, Jadeveon Clowney and one-man highlights reel JJ Watt will cause problems for every opponent this year. However an offense led by Brian Hoyer is not going to be high powered, and the team could ill afford to lose their one true attacking star, Arian Foster, to injury.

The Titans and Jaguars are both led by young quarterbacks – Marcus Mariota may find an outlet in fellow rookie Dorial Green-Beckham, while Blake Bortles has been given a new target man in former Broncos tight end Julius Thomas. Either team could improve over the next couple of seasons but for now it looks like another year of struggle.

Colts (12-4 – 1st seed)

Texans (7-9)

Titans (5-11)

Jaguars (4-12)

AFC West

For a while now, the Broncos under Peyton Manning have been the team to beat, while the Oakland Raiders have been the division’s whipping boys. Things should start to tighten up a little this year…

At 39, Manning is showing signs of wear and tear. By which I mean his neck, back and arm don’t work and he can’t feel his fingers. And the amount he and Demaryius Thomas get paid means the team couldn’t afford to keep players like Julius Thomas on the roster. Expect a decent downturn on the offensive side – which should at least let the defence get the proper credit they’ve been due for a couple of years. The Broncos don’t give up many yards at all to opponents, and the switch to a 3-4 defence seems to be working for them so far.

The Raiders aren’t going to win the division, but with Derek Carr passing to Amari Cooper and handing the ball to Latavius Murray, they do seem to have the prospect of a workable offence. Khalil Mack is someone to build around on the defence, while in Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford they have two young tight ends who could improve the team as they challenge each other for the starting spot.

San Diego seem to be treading water at the moment – they’ve been an average or just-better-than-average team for a while now, but a lot of their best players (Eric Weddle, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates) are the wrong side of 30 now and it’s a struggle to see how they improve this year: even new signing Stevie Johnson is 29. A breakout year by rookie running back Melvin Gordon may be the only way they can get a winning season this time around.

This leaves the way open for the only team in the division that looks sure to be above-average on both sides of the ball… you know who I mean folks! Now I’ll put my cards on the table here – I underestimated us by guessing 8-8 two years ago, and got it right by going for a 9-7 season last year – so I am not a wildly optimistic homer. I have just seen a lot to like from the Chiefs recently. Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce is an attacking quartet as good as any in the league (as another recent article on this site pointed out) – but the pre season has also shown how good our depth is in all of these positions, with Chase Daniel and Charcandrick West among the players who look as though they could step into a starting role at a moment’s notice if needed. The defence put up a fair showing last year in the absence of multiple big names. With Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito all now back – and first round rookie Marcus Peters looking like an immediate starter – we should be a top 10 defence.

Believe, people – this year we are going to see this side win in the post season!

Chiefs (11-5 – 3rd seed)

Broncos (9-7)

Chargers (7-9)

Raiders (5-11)