Cap Analysis

Jan 14, 2015
4 min read

One more preliminary remark: I'll use overthecap.com numbers for all things cap related. If I become aware of discrepancies between that site and other sources I'll note that. When I started to dig into the Chiefs' salary cap situation I thought that would be easy: Make a cut here or there, clear the space needed to re-sign Houston and/or Hudson, and be done. That was until ... well, let's see. General reporting indicates the 2015 cap will be somewhere around 140 - 142 M$, a significant increase over the 2014 cap (133 M$). The last number for the 2014 cap situation I saw had the Chiefs about 2 M$ under the cap - so they may roll over that amount, giving them a cap limit of (best case) 144 M$. Next I checked the Chiefs' active contracts for 2015 - and BOOOOM: 144 M$ for the top 51 already now - without Houston and without Hudson. Even worse - at some point in time you'll have to fit all 53 players under the cap (adds approx. 1 M$), you've got to pay the practice squad (approx. 1.5M$) and you need to keep some room for in-season signings to replace injured players (let's say 2 M$). Last piece to the puzzle: the draft picks (add another 1.5 M$). So overall, with the current contracts, the Chiefs deal with a projected roster cap of 150 M$ (give or take a little). Being the optimist that I am I figured the Chiefs need to save about 6 M$ before even starting to think about any re-signings or added Free Agents. I wondered: How come? Well, most of the contracts the Chiefs made in their big Free Agent haul of 2013 were backloaded. Avery, Fasano, De Vito and others came cheap the first year. The second year the Chiefs still had some money to roll over. Now it's all piling up. This year they gave new contracts to A. Smith, Bailey, Sherman and Charles, adding to the malaise. Well, now they need to find a way (or two) to dig themselves out of the hole again they created for themselves. Again - the current situation is on Dorsey and his team, not Pioli as some pundits claim (including one guy I truly like as a football expert: Bob Gretz). I then checked all contracts with a cap of more than 1 M$ (doesn't make much sense to count nickels and dimes when bundles of Franklins are needed). 22 contracts to check and value. I ruled out re-negotiation or termination of all contracts re-done or extended this year (A. Smith, Bailey, Charles, Sherman) and all contracts where termination/restructuring would cause more dead money than money saved (Fisher, Poe, Ford, Abdullah). The obvious two big ones left everyone is talking about are Bowe (14 M$) and Hali (12 M$). Releasing both would clear 14 M$, declaring Bowe a June 2-release another 6 M$ (which would be charged against next year, but that's a different story). Other players to watch (potential GROSS savings in ( )): S. Smith (5.5 M$), DeVito (4 M$), Johnson (5.25 M$, yes, I said it), Daniel (3.8 M$), Avery (3.55 M$), Mays (3 M$), Fasano (1.975 M$), and Walker (1.5 M$).

However, you'll have to deduct the cost of the replacement from the numbers mentioned above - the effective NET saving would thus be significantly less than it appears at first sight - especially for the "cheaper" players. Players not listed would contribute less than 500 k$ net, thus be a nice-to-have, but not a solution to the problem. I didn't forget about Eric Berry. He's a special case. While on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list it's entirely up to the club whether they pay him at all and if so - how much. However, any amount they pay counts against the cap. A weird rule, but that's what it is. Thus, if the Chiefs decline to pay him they save more than 5 M$ in cash and cap, as only the prorated portion of his signing bonus (2.9 M$) would count. The Chiefs walk a tight rope here, as the refusal to pay Berry might cause a significant media/fan uproar. Will be interesting to see how Dorsey/Hunt handle this issue and whether the public will be made aware of it. Bottom line: The Chiefs will have to cut deep to solve the self-created mess. Options without addressing the Bowe and Hali contracts are limited. The Berry issue needs to be handle carefully. But one thing is pretty sure: We'll have to say goodbye to some great players, long-time Chiefs and fan favorites. I will not refrain from making unpopular proposals, especially as some signs are clearly on the wall already. That is it for now. Specific cap issues, especially the impact of potential releases, will be discussed in more detail in the respective unit evaluation. I'm looking forward for you guys ripping me for that. Sad as the reason may be, I think this will be a fun ride putting on John Dorseys hat and discussing options and ultimately come to a conclusion/decision that is not ours to make.